US-Iran conflict chokes off oil supply — ride the energy squeeze with major oil
Thesis
Military strikes between the U.S. and Iran have escalated into a direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump reinstating a blockade on Iranian ships and Brent crude pushing toward the high $80s. When a major shipping chokepoint is physically disrupted, oil supply tightens immediately, which historically drives a rapid spike in crude prices. Major oil producers like Exxon and Chevron stand to see their profit margins expand significantly as the oil they sell commands a premium on the global market. Unless there is a sudden ceasefire, this physical supply risk provides a strong, ongoing tailwind for energy stocks.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum-driven strategy that enters long positions in USO and major oil equities (XOM, CVX) on a daily (D1) timeframe. Entry triggers when Brent crude makes a new 10-day closing high and the front-month WTI futures curve is in backwardation. Exit the position if the daily settlement price drops below the 20-day moving average, or hold for a maximum of 21 trading days. Include a 6% trailing stop to protect against sudden geopolitical de-escalation. ADVANCED ANALYSIS RESEARCH EVIDENCE…