Public trading strategy
Oil gets crushed 15% in four days on Iran deal — play the snapback bounce
Thesis
Oil has plummeted because the market expects a massive new wave of supply from Iran now that a peace deal is near. However, the initial panic selling often goes too far, too fast, leaving the market vulnerable to a snapback. When prices drop 15% in four days, any slight delay in the deal or unexpected production hiccup can trigger a violent short-term bounce as traders take their profits off the table.
Strategy approach
Build a volatility-breakout strategy that enters long Brent Crude Oil Futures (BZ) or USO on H4 when the 20-period ATR expands by 50% relative to the previous 5-day average ATR, combined with a candle close > 1 ATR above the 20-period EMA. Exit on a 4% trailing stop or after 10 trading days.