Oil gets crushed 15% in four days on Iran deal — play the snapback bounce
Created
Thesis
Oil has plummeted because the market expects a massive new wave of supply from Iran now that a peace deal is near. However, the initial panic selling often goes too far, too fast, leaving the market vulnerable to a snapback. When prices drop 15% in four days, any slight delay in the deal or unexpected production hiccup can trigger a violent short-term bounce as traders take their profits off the table.
Strategy approach
Build a volatility-breakout strategy that enters long Brent Crude Oil Futures (BZ) or USO on H4 when the 20-period ATR expands by 50% relative to the previous 5-day average ATR, combined with a candle close > 1 ATR above the 20-period EMA. Exit on a 4% trailing stop or after 10 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ATR/EMA Signal Long (USO@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ATR/EMA Signal Long (USO@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 4,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ATR/EMA Signal Long (USO@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 4,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil gets crushed 15% in four days on Iran deal — play the snapback bounce'. Thesis: Oil has plummeted because the market expects a massive new wave of supply from Iran now that a peace deal is near. However, the initial panic selling often goes too far, too fast, leaving the market vulnerable to a snapback. When prices drop 15% in four days, any slight delay in the deal or unexpected production hiccup can trigger a violent short-term bounce as traders take their profits off the table.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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