Public trading strategy
War-driven oil spike hits AI data center costs — short tech ETFs
Created
Thesis
A direct U.S. strike on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices sharply higher at the worst possible time for the tech sector. Tech and AI-related stocks were already sliding globally, and skyrocketing energy costs act as a massive new tax on the heavy power requirements of AI data centers. Connecting the geopolitical oil shock to the tech sell-off, the combination of rising operational costs and a risk-off market environment makes the tech-heavy Nasdaq vulnerable to further losses. Investors fleeing high-risk, high-cost tech stocks while oil spikes creates a perfect storm for a short QQQ trade.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short QQQ on D1 when front-month crude oil futures (CL=F) rally >3% in a single session AND QQQ closes below its 20-day simple moving average. Exit the position when QQQ closes above its 10-day SMA or after a 10-trading-day max hold. Risk manage with a 3% stop loss on the QQQ entry price.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
QQQ · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- Price above SMA (20) — near
XLK · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- Price above SMA (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlk",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlk",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlk",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.603266666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.206533333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.603266666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlk",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlk",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlk",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.603266666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.206533333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.603266666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'War-driven oil spike hits AI data center costs — short tech ETFs'. Thesis: A direct U.S. strike on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices sharply higher at the worst possible time for the tech sector. Tech and AI-related stocks were already sliding globally, and skyrocketing energy costs act as a massive new tax on the heavy power requirements of AI data centers. Connecting the geopolitical oil shock to the tech sell-off, the combination of rising operational costs and a risk-off market environment makes the tech-heavy Nasdaq vulnerable to further losses. Investors fleeing high-risk, high-cost tech stocks while oil spikes creates a perfect storm for a short QQQ trade.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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