Public trading strategy
Alibaba flooding the market with $10 billion of new stock dilutes current owners
Created
Thesis
Alibaba flooding the market with $10 billion of new stock dilutes current owners, and such placements typically weigh on the share price for weeks afterward. At the same time, Micron's sharp 7% fall shows investors starting to question the high prices paid for AI-linked stocks, hinting the enthusiasm behind mega-cap tech may be cooling. Together these point to near-term downside in richly valued large-cap names. This is a fade of an overstretched trade rather than a bet on a collapse.
Strategy approach
Alibaba flooding the market with $10 billion of new stock dilutes current owners, and such placements typically weigh on the share price for weeks afterward. At the same time, Micron's sharp 7% fall shows investors starting to question the high prices paid for AI-linked stocks, hinting the enthusiasm behind mega-cap tech may be cooling. Together these point to near-term downside in richly valued large-cap names. This is a fade of an overstretched trade rather than a bet on a collapse. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BABA · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- OBV below 0 — unknown
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above EMA (50) — near
MU · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (50) — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- OBV below 0 — unknown
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (BABA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (MU@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BABA@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MU@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BABA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (MU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BABA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (MU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.4% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_baba",
"name": "EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mu",
"name": "EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (MU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_baba",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mu",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_baba",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mu",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MU@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_baba",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mu",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MU@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_baba",
"name": "EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mu",
"name": "EMA/MACD/OBV/RSI Crossover Long (MU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_baba",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mu",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_baba",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mu",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MU@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BABA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_baba",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BABA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BABA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mu",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MU@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Alibaba flooding the market with $10 billion of new stock dilutes current owners, and such placements typically weigh on the share price for weeks afterward. At the same time, Micron's sharp 7% fall shows investors starting to question the high prices pai'. Thesis: Alibaba flooding the market with $10 billion of new stock dilutes current owners, and such placements typically weigh on the share price for weeks afterward. At the same time, Micron's sharp 7% fall shows investors starting to question the high prices paid for AI-linked stocks, hinting the enthusiasm behind mega-cap tech may be cooling. Together these point to near-term downside in richly valued large-cap names. This is a fade of an overstretched trade rather than a bet on a collapse.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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