Public trading strategy
Japan hikes rates to highest since 1995 — bet against Bitcoin as global cash dri
Created
Thesis
When Japan raises interest rates, it often forces large global investors to unwind their riskiest bets, which historically puts intense selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. With Bitcoin already showing weakness and bleeding cash from its ETFs, this surprise rate hike to 1% could be the catalyst that pushes prices much lower. Betting against Bitcoin here allows you to profit if this macroeconomic pressure triggers the predicted drop toward $60,000.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short BTCUSDT on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe when the 50-period simple moving average crosses below the 200-period simple moving average, and the 14-period RSI is below 45. Exit the trade if the 50-period SMA crosses back above the 200-period SMA. Apply a 5% stop loss and a 15% take profit target.
Markets and timeframes
BTCH4
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SMA Crosses Above Exit (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 15.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 5.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SMA Crosses Above Exit (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SMA Crosses Above Exit (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Japan hikes rates to highest since 1995 — bet against Bitcoin as global cash dries up'. Thesis: When Japan raises interest rates, it often forces large global investors to unwind their riskiest bets, which historically puts intense selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. With Bitcoin already showing weakness and bleeding cash from its ETFs, this surprise rate hike to 1% could be the catalyst that pushes prices much lower. Betting against Bitcoin here allows you to profit if this macroeconomic pressure triggers the predicted drop toward $60,000.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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