Public trading strategy
Chip bubble bursting as AI spending fears go global — short the semiconductor ra
Created
Thesis
The semiconductor sector is unraveling after a record-breaking quarter where it swelled to nearly 20% of the S&P 500's value. The panic started with Wall Street chip giants like Micron losing $200 billion in value in a single day and has now violently spread to Asian markets, dragging down Samsung and SK Hynix by over 7%. The root cause is a growing fear that AI computing capacity is becoming oversupplied—triggered by Meta announcing plans to sell compute power. This jittery sentiment is rapidly infecting the entire global supply chain, creating strong downward momentum.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short SOXX (or individual names like AMD, MU, INTC) on D1 when the ETF gaps down >3% and closes below its 20-day low, with a 10-day max hold and a 4% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AMD · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below 0.97 — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
MU · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below 0.97 — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — near
SOXX · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below 0.97 — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Gap-Down Breakdown Short (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Back Above Support[1] (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop: 10 Bars Max Hold (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "open",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.97
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Gap-Down Breakdown Short (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Back Above Support[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4.809466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Time Stop: 10 Bars Max Hold",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 4,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "open",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.97
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Gap-Down Breakdown Short (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Back Above Support[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4.809466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Time Stop: 10 Bars Max Hold",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 4,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Chip bubble bursting as AI spending fears go global — short the semiconductor rally'. Thesis: The semiconductor sector is unraveling after a record-breaking quarter where it swelled to nearly 20% of the S&P 500's value. The panic started with Wall Street chip giants like Micron losing $200 billion in value in a single day and has now violently spread to Asian markets, dragging down Samsung and SK Hynix by over 7%. The root cause is a growing fear that AI computing capacity is becoming oversupplied—triggered by Meta announcing plans to sell compute power. This jittery sentiment is rapidly infecting the entire global supply chain, creating strong downward momentum.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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