Public trading strategy
An 83% chance of a rate hike is a binary event crypto has not priced cleanly: ev
Created
Thesis
An 83% chance of a rate hike is a binary event crypto has not priced cleanly: every leg higher in rate expectations this month has coincided with the stock selloff, and Bitcoin tends to underperform when the cost of holding money rises. Unlike an equity with earnings to lean on, crypto has no cash flow to cushion it, so the trade is simply avoiding the hit. The Fed meeting on September 16 is a hard catalyst with a date, which lets you size the position and cap the holding period rather than guessing. If the Fed surprises and holds, the position exits at the announcement — limited downside, defined window.
Strategy approach
An 83% chance of a rate hike is a binary event crypto has not priced cleanly: every leg higher in rate expectations this month has coincided with the stock selloff, and Bitcoin tends to underperform when the cost of holding money rises. Unlike an equity with earnings to lean on, crypto has no cash flow to cushion it, so the trade is simply avoiding the hit. The Fed meeting on September 16 is a hard catalyst with a date, which lets you size the position and cap the holding period rather than guessing. If the Fed surprises and holds, the position exits at the announcement — limited downside, defined window. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
COIN · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — near
XRP · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (COIN@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (XRP@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop: Exit by Fed Announcement (5 bars) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (next support zone) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit: Next Support Zone (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit: Next Support Zone (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit: Next Support Zone (XRP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (XRP@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xrp",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: Exit by Fed Announcement (5 bars)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2% (next support zone)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 20,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 21,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xrp",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 22,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_btc",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_coin",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xrp",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xrp",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: Exit by Fed Announcement (5 bars)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2% (next support zone)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 20,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 21,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xrp",
"name": "Take Profit: Next Support Zone (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 22,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_btc",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_coin",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xrp",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Broken Support (XRP@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:XRP"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'An 83% chance of a rate hike is a binary event crypto has not priced cleanly: every leg higher in rate expectations this month has coincided with the stock selloff, and Bitcoin tends to underperform when the cost of holding money rises. Unlike an equity w'. Thesis: An 83% chance of a rate hike is a binary event crypto has not priced cleanly: every leg higher in rate expectations this month has coincided with the stock selloff, and Bitcoin tends to underperform when the cost of holding money rises. Unlike an equity with earnings to lean on, crypto has no cash flow to cushion it, so the trade is simply avoiding the hit. The Fed meeting on September 16 is a hard catalyst with a date, which lets you size the position and cap the holding period rather than guessing. If the Fed surprises and holds, the position exits at the announcement — limited downside, defined window.
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- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
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- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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