Public trading strategy
OPEC pumps more while oil floods the market — short the drillers
Created
Thesis
OPEC+ is intentionally raising production quotas even as crude prices tumble, banking on a fragile Iran peace deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. At the same time, the CEO of TotalEnergies confirms that Middle Eastern producers are 'desperate' to offload stockpiles built up during the recent conflict. This combination of policy-driven quota hikes and a physical market flooded with discounted inventory creates a powerful bearish tailwind for crude. U.S. exploration companies, whose profits are directly tied to the price of oil, are likely to see their margins squeezed further, making them a strong short-selling candidate.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short XOP (S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF) on D1 when WTI crude makes a 20-day low. Exit when RSI(14) < 30 or after a 21-day max hold. Use a 6% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
XLE · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below Donchian (20) — near
- Price at or below Donchian (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
XOP · 1d
0 of 1 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or below Donchian (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN Signal Short (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN Signal Short (XLE@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 21.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 6.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN Signal Short (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 21.0%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xle",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_xle",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN Signal Short (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 21.0%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_xle",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_xle",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'OPEC pumps more while oil floods the market — short the drillers'. Thesis: OPEC+ is intentionally raising production quotas even as crude prices tumble, banking on a fragile Iran peace deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. At the same time, the CEO of TotalEnergies confirms that Middle Eastern producers are 'desperate' to offload stockpiles built up during the recent conflict. This combination of policy-driven quota hikes and a physical market flooded with discounted inventory creates a powerful bearish tailwind for crude. U.S. exploration companies, whose profits are directly tied to the price of oil, are likely to see their margins squeezed further, making them a strong short-selling candidate.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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