Public trading strategy
Options traders haven't been this bullish on tech since 2007 — a weak economy ma
Thesis
Options on tech stocks haven't been this expensive since 2007, showing extreme euphoria among traders chasing the AI rally. However, the sudden and sharp slowdown in job growth introduces a massive economic risk. With tech stocks already falling ahead of the payroll release and macro tailwinds stalling, the combination of peak euphoria and a weakening economy sets up a classic mean-reversion short opportunity.
Strategy approach
Build a strategy that enters short QQQ on D1 when the CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) closes above its 80th percentile rank of the last 60 days while QQQ closes down >1% on the same session. Exit after a 10-day max hold or a 2% bounce from entry.