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Public trading strategy

Middle East tensions choking oil supply — energy stocks could surge to multi-yea

Created

Thesis

A massive portion of the world's oil has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently facing major disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Traders now believe these delays and supply fears will last until the end of the year. If the price of oil pushes toward $150 a barrel as experts predict, the stock prices of oil drilling and production companies are likely to soar alongside it, as they make significantly more profit per barrel.

Strategy approach

Build a trend-following strategy for crude oil and related energy equities on the Daily timeframe. Enter long on USO, XLE, or CVX when the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2) and the ADX(14) is above 25. Exit when the price closes below the 20-day simple moving average. Cap holding period at 30 days.

Markets and timeframes

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: BB/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (XLE@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "CVX",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_cvx",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_xle",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_uso",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_cvx",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_xle",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_uso",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 4,
      "trade_symbol": "USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_cvx",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_xle",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_uso",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 4,
      "trade_symbol": "USO"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_cvx",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_xle",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_uso",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1618,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_cvx",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1618,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_xle",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 98,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1618,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_uso",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 99,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_cvx",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_xle",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_uso",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "USO"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "CVX",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CVX",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_cvx",
      "name": "BB/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "CVX"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
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}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Middle East tensions choking oil supply — energy stocks could surge to multi-year highs'. Thesis: A massive portion of the world's oil has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently facing major disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Traders now believe these delays and supply fears will last until the end of the year. If the price of oil pushes toward $150 a barrel as experts predict, the stock prices of oil drilling and production companies are likely to soar alongside it, as they make significantly more profit per barrel.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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