Public trading strategy
Wholesale inflation surges to 3-year high — short homebuilders as borrowing cost
Created
Thesis
When central banks like the ECB raise interest rates, borrowing money becomes more expensive for regular people. This directly hits the housing market because fewer people can afford high mortgage rates to buy homes. With inflation hitting a multi-year high and the Iran war continuing to push energy costs up, rates are likely to stay high. This makes homebuilder stocks extremely vulnerable to a drop in new home sales.
Strategy approach
Build a strategy that shorts European homebuilders using ETFs like XHB or ITB on a daily (D1) timeframe. The entry trigger is when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average (death cross) and the RSI(14) is below 40. Set a stop loss at 3% above the entry price and a take profit at an 8% drop.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (XHB@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (ITB@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (DHI@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (LEN@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xhb",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (XHB@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_itb",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dhi",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_len",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "LEN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_xhb",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_itb",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_dhi",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_len",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_xhb",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_itb",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_dhi",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_len",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "LEN"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 3,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XHB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xhb",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (XHB@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_itb",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dhi",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_len",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "LEN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_xhb",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_itb",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_dhi",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_len",
"name": "Take Profit at 8.0%",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_xhb",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XHB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_itb",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_dhi",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_sl_len",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "LEN"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 3,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Wholesale inflation surges to 3-year high — short homebuilders as borrowing costs climb'. Thesis: When central banks like the ECB raise interest rates, borrowing money becomes more expensive for regular people. This directly hits the housing market because fewer people can afford high mortgage rates to buy homes. With inflation hitting a multi-year high and the Iran war continuing to push energy costs up, rates are likely to stay high. This makes homebuilder stocks extremely vulnerable to a drop in new home sales.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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