Public trading strategy
Oil flooding the market as OPEC pumps and Iran peace deal unleashes stockpiles —
Created
Thesis
OPEC is ramping output just as a US-Iran peace deal unlocks even more supply, creating a classic glut scenario. The Total CEO explicitly says Middle East producers are 'desperate to sell' stockpiled oil, and the Brent curve is weakening — a technical sign that traders expect prices to keep falling. When supply overwhelms demand this decisively, oil majors like Exxon and Chevron typically see their profit margins squeezed with a lag, making energy stocks vulnerable to a catch-down move even if they haven't fully priced it in yet.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long XLE put options (or shorts XLE) on D1 when front-month WTI crude oil (CL=F) drops more than 2% in a single session and the Brent crude curve is in contango (front month cheaper than second month). Hold for 10 trading days maximum. Exit early if WTI rebounds 3% off the entry close.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CVX · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (21) — near
USO · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (21) — far
XLE · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (21) — near
XOM · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (21) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Crude Glut Fade Long (USO@1d): buy one-session drop steeper than 2% with negative MACD momentum below the 21-day EMA — fading the continuation the direct thesis bet on (3 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 10 trading days (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: crude continues falling 3% below entry (adverse 3% for long), fires before the wider 5% stop (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Crude Glut Fade Long (USO@1d): buy one-session drop steeper than 2% with negative MACD momentum below the 21-day EMA — fading the continuation the direct thesis bet on",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 10 trading days",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "invalidation"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Invalidation: crude continues falling 3% below entry (adverse 3% for long), fires before the wider 5% stop",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "invalidation"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 20,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4606333333333335,
"stop_loss_percent": 5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Crude Glut Fade Long (USO@1d): buy one-session drop steeper than 2% with negative MACD momentum below the 21-day EMA — fading the continuation the direct thesis bet on",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 10 trading days",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "invalidation"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Invalidation: crude continues falling 3% below entry (adverse 3% for long), fires before the wider 5% stop",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "invalidation"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 20,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4606333333333335,
"stop_loss_percent": 5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil flooding the market as OPEC pumps and Iran peace deal unleashes stockpiles — short energy stocks'. Thesis: OPEC is ramping output just as a US-Iran peace deal unlocks even more supply, creating a classic glut scenario. The Total CEO explicitly says Middle East producers are 'desperate to sell' stockpiled oil, and the Brent curve is weakening — a technical sign that traders expect prices to keep falling. When supply overwhelms demand this decisively, oil majors like Exxon and Chevron typically see their profit margins squeezed with a lag, making energy stocks vulnerable to a catch-down move even if they haven't fully priced it in yet.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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