Public trading strategy
Mega-cap tech breaks down as rates stay hot — short Microsoft on continued weakn
Created
Thesis
Microsoft's historic sell-off signals that mega-cap tech has lost its momentum. The catalyst is a 'shifting landscape' at the Fed where Chairman Warsh is expected to keep rates high, which hits growth stocks the hardest because their future earnings look less valuable. The yen hitting a four-decade low adds another layer of risk, as Japanese investors may pull money out of U.S. tech to bring it home. This toxic combination of rising rates, a crashing yen, and weakening mega-cap leadership makes the tech correction likely to continue.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSFT on D1 when MSFT is down >10% over a rolling 21-day period AND the 10-year Treasury yield is above its 200-day moving average, with a 15-day max hold and a 4% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
MSFT · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (21) below -10 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below MACD (12,26,9) — met
- Price above SMA (200) — met
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
- ROC (21) above -2 — met
XLK · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (21) below -10 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below MACD (12,26,9) — met
- Price above SMA (200) — met
- RSI (14) above 55 — met
- ROC (21) above -2 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (MSFT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (XLK@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLK"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlk",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlk",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_msft",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_xlk",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4094333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.818866666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.4094333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC/RSI/MACD/SMA Signal Long (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLK"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlk",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlk",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlk",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_msft",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_xlk",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4094333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.818866666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.4094333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Mega-cap tech breaks down as rates stay hot — short Microsoft on continued weakness'. Thesis: Microsoft's historic sell-off signals that mega-cap tech has lost its momentum. The catalyst is a 'shifting landscape' at the Fed where Chairman Warsh is expected to keep rates high, which hits growth stocks the hardest because their future earnings look less valuable. The yen hitting a four-decade low adds another layer of risk, as Japanese investors may pull money out of U.S. tech to bring it home. This toxic combination of rising rates, a crashing yen, and weakening mega-cap leadership makes the tech correction likely to continue.
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- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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