Public trading strategy
When the Fed says it is ready to hike if inflation doesn't improve, a single inf
Created
Thesis
When the Fed says it is ready to hike if inflation doesn't improve, a single inflation print can swing the decision — and reporting shows the call could come down to hundredths of a percentage point, meaning markets are genuinely split on the outcome. Calm, subdued trading into the release means option prices are cheap relative to the size of the move the number could trigger. Buying both calls and puts captures whichever way the surprise lands, and works even better with the added oil-driven inflation uncertainty already gripping markets.
Strategy approach
When the Fed says it is ready to hike if inflation doesn't improve, a single inflation print can swing the decision — and reporting shows the call could come down to hundredths of a percentage point, meaning markets are genuinely split on the outcome. Calm, subdued trading into the release means option prices are cheap relative to the size of the move the number could trigger. Buying both calls and puts captures whichever way the surprise lands, and works even better with the added oil-driven inflation uncertainty already gripping markets. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing, implied_volatility_expected_move, theta, breakeven_payoff, maximum_loss, liquidity_spread_volatility, simpler_alternatives.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (time stop preserved from mandate) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.9% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": false,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "EMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (SPY@1d) — DISABLED: mandate is an avoid posture; thesis is an event-driven long-volatility straddle, not a directional long",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": false,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "EMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (TLT@1d) — DISABLED: mandate is an avoid posture; thesis is an event-driven long-volatility straddle, not a directional long",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (time stop preserved from mandate)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4395454545454545
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.879090909090909
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4395454545454545,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": false,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "EMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (SPY@1d) — DISABLED: mandate is an avoid posture; thesis is an event-driven long-volatility straddle, not a directional long",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": false,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "EMA/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (TLT@1d) — DISABLED: mandate is an avoid posture; thesis is an event-driven long-volatility straddle, not a directional long",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (time stop preserved from mandate)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4395454545454545
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.879090909090909
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4395454545454545,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When the Fed says it is ready to hike if inflation doesn't improve, a single inflation print can swing the decision — and reporting shows the call could come down to hundredths of a percentage point, meaning markets are genuinely split on the outcome. Cal'. Thesis: When the Fed says it is ready to hike if inflation doesn't improve, a single inflation print can swing the decision — and reporting shows the call could come down to hundredths of a percentage point, meaning markets are genuinely split on the outcome. Calm, subdued trading into the release means option prices are cheap relative to the size of the move the number could trigger. Buying both calls and puts captures whichever way the surprise lands, and works even better with the added oil-driven inflation uncertainty already gripping markets.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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