Public trading strategy
Trump threatens Iran strikes again — oil majors get a bid
Created
Thesis
Any mention of military action in the Middle East — especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil flows — creates an instant risk premium in crude prices. Even if peace talks eventually succeed, the uncertainty alone can keep oil elevated for days or weeks. Major oil producers like Exxon and Chevron benefit directly from higher crude prices, making them a cleaner play than trying to time commodity futures.
Strategy approach
Build a volatility-breakout strategy for oil stocks XOM and CVX on the daily timeframe. Enter long when price breaks above the 15-day high by at least 1.5% and WTI crude oil futures are up at least 2% on the day. Exit on a 6% trailing stop or if crude oil falls 5% from its recent high. Include a 20-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (XOM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (CVX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (XOM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 20.0% (XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 20.0% (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 20.0% (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xom",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_cvx",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xom",
"name": "Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_cvx",
"name": "Crossover Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_uso",
"name": "Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xom",
"name": "Take Profit at 20.0% (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_cvx",
"name": "Take Profit at 20.0% (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Take Profit at 20.0% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xom",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_cvx",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xom",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_cvx",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CVX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 15
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ADX Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Trump threatens Iran strikes again — oil majors get a bid'. Thesis: Any mention of military action in the Middle East — especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil flows — creates an instant risk premium in crude prices. Even if peace talks eventually succeed, the uncertainty alone can keep oil elevated for days or weeks. Major oil producers like Exxon and Chevron benefit directly from higher crude prices, making them a cleaner play than trying to time commodity futures.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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