Public trading strategy
Biotech M&A frenzy kicks off with $10.6B deal — target the next takeover candida
Created
Thesis
Large drugmakers are facing patent expirations and desperately need new drugs to sell. GSK's $10.6 billion purchase of Nuvalent proves they are willing to pay massive premiums to get them. As this deal-making frenzy continues, other mid-sized biotech firms with successful cancer or obesity treatments could become the next takeover targets, making them attractive investments right now.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that scans for small-to-mid cap biotech stocks (market cap $2B-$15B) trading on the NASDAQ. Enter long when a stock's money flow index (MFI) crosses above 80 on the daily timeframe. Set a wide 8% stop loss and a 15% take profit to allow for volatile swings.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (EXEL@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (MRNA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (XBI@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (RXRX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX Crossover Long (EXEL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX Crossover Long (MRNA@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX Crossover Long (XBI@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: MFI/ADX Crossover Long (RXRX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (EXEL@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (MRNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XBI@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (RXRX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (EXEL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (MRNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (XBI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (RXRX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (EXEL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MRNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XBI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (RXRX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (EXEL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (MRNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XBI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (RXRX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_exel",
"name": "MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mrna",
"name": "MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xbi",
"name": "MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_rxrx",
"name": "MFI/ADX/ATR Crossover Long (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_exel",
"name": "MFI/ADX Crossover Long (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_mrna",
"name": "MFI/ADX Crossover Long (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xbi",
"name": "MFI/ADX Crossover Long (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_rxrx",
"name": "MFI/ADX Crossover Long (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_exel",
"name": "Crossover Long (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_mrna",
"name": "Crossover Long (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xbi",
"name": "Crossover Long (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_rxrx",
"name": "Crossover Long (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_exel",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mrna",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xbi",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_rxrx",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_exel",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mrna",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xbi",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_rxrx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_exel",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (EXEL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:EXEL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mrna",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MRNA@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xbi",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XBI@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XBI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_rxrx",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (RXRX@1d)",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:RXRX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4116
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.8232
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4116,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MRNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XBI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:RXRX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:EXEL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
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"method": {
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"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Biotech M&A frenzy kicks off with $10.6B deal — target the next takeover candidates'. Thesis: Large drugmakers are facing patent expirations and desperately need new drugs to sell. GSK's $10.6 billion purchase of Nuvalent proves they are willing to pay massive premiums to get them. As this deal-making frenzy continues, other mid-sized biotech firms with successful cancer or obesity treatments could become the next takeover targets, making them attractive investments right now.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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