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Public trading strategy

USO Catalyst-Breakout Confirmation Strategy

Created

Thesis

The market already prices some war premium, but CNBC reports oil could rally sharply if the Saudi pipeline stays offline beyond a five-to-seven-day inventory cushion — a binary, dated catalyst that defined-risk option structures are built for. Russia's export surge confirms physical demand is strong enough to absorb more barrels at higher prices. With stocks sagging on surging bond yields, oil-linked upside is one of the few trades that doesn't depend on risk appetite improving. Buying call spreads on the energy ETF lets you bet on the supply shock rather than any single producer's quirks, with losses capped if the pipeline comes back quickly.

Strategy approach

The market already prices some war premium, but CNBC reports oil could rally sharply if the Saudi pipeline stays offline beyond a five-to-seven-day inventory cushion — a binary, dated catalyst that defined-risk option structures are built for. Russia's export surge confirms physical demand is strong enough to absorb more barrels at higher prices. With stocks sagging on surging bond yields, oil-linked upside is one of the few trades that doesn't depend on risk appetite improving. Buying call spreads on the energy ETF lets you bet on the supply shock rather than any single producer's quirks, with losses capped if the pipeline comes back quickly. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing,…

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

USO · 1d

6 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price crossed above Donchian (20) — far
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • ROC (10) above 0 — met
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price crossed above Donchian (20) — far
  • ADX (14) above 25 — met
  • ROC (10) above 0 — met
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price crossed below EMA (20) — far

XLE · 1d

2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
  • ADX (14) above 25 — far
  • ROC (10) above 0 — met
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
  • ADX (14) above 25 — far
  • ROC (10) above 0 — met
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price crossed below EMA (20) — near

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: Crossover Long (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Entry: Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_uso",
      "name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_xle",
      "name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_uso",
      "name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_xle",
      "name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_uso",
      "name": "Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_xle",
      "name": "Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_uso",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_xle",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_uso",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_xle",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_uso",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_xle",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 98,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4_uso",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4_xle",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.38
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.76
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.38,
      "support_stop_rank": 1,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "donchian",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "roc",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "donchian",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "roc",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 20
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "roc",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:USO",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_uso",
      "name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/ROC Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "upper",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "donchian",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
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}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The market already prices some war premium, but CNBC reports oil could rally sharply if the Saudi pipeline stays offline beyond a five-to-seven-day inventory cushion — a binary, dated catalyst that defined-risk option structures are built for. Russia's ex'. Thesis: The market already prices some war premium, but CNBC reports oil could rally sharply if the Saudi pipeline stays offline beyond a five-to-seven-day inventory cushion — a binary, dated catalyst that defined-risk option structures are built for. Russia's export surge confirms physical demand is strong enough to absorb more barrels at higher prices. With stocks sagging on surging bond yields, oil-linked upside is one of the few trades that doesn't depend on risk appetite improving. Buying call spreads on the energy ETF lets you bet on the supply shock rather than any single producer's quirks, with losses capped if the pipeline comes back quickly.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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