Public trading strategy
War spikes and hot inflation revive rate-hike fears — short the Nasdaq bounce
Created
Thesis
Rising inflation combined with new military strikes in the Middle East creates a double whammy for tech stocks. Higher prices force the Fed to keep raising interest rates, which makes it more expensive for fast-growing companies to borrow money. Since tech relies heavily on future growth projections, higher rates make those future earnings look less valuable today. With chip stocks already selling off heavily this week, the Nasdaq is especially vulnerable if the inflation number comes in even worse than expected.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion short strategy on the Nasdaq 100 using QQQ on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe. Enter a short position when QQQ rallies and the RSI(14) reaches above 65, but only if the price is still below the 20-day simple moving average on the daily chart. Exit the position if RSI drops below 40, or set a strict 3% stop loss above the entry price. Maximum hold time of 5 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Overbought RSI/SMA Short (NVDA@4h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Overbought RSI/SMA Short (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Overbought RSI/SMA Short (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'War spikes and hot inflation revive rate-hike fears — short the Nasdaq bounce'. Thesis: Rising inflation combined with new military strikes in the Middle East creates a double whammy for tech stocks. Higher prices force the Fed to keep raising interest rates, which makes it more expensive for fast-growing companies to borrow money. Since tech relies heavily on future growth projections, higher rates make those future earnings look less valuable today. With chip stocks already selling off heavily this week, the Nasdaq is especially vulnerable if the inflation number comes in even worse than expected.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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