Gold craters as global rate hikes kick in — short the metal's continued slide
Created
Thesis
You would normally expect gold to go up when inflation rises, but right now it is crashing because interest rates are climbing even faster. When rates go up, gold becomes less attractive to investors since it doesn't pay out any yield compared to safe government bonds. Both Europe's central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to keep hiking rates to fight inflation sparked by the Iran war. With the price already at a six-month low, this downward momentum is likely to keep pushing gold lower as borrowing costs rise.
Strategy approach
Build a short strategy for GLD on the daily timeframe. Enter a short position when the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band (20, 2) and the 10-day simple moving average crosses below the 50-day simple moving average. Set a stop-loss at 2% above the entry price, and use a 5% trailing take-profit.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB Signal Short (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "BB Signal Short (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "BB Signal Short (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Gold craters as global rate hikes kick in — short the metal's continued slide'. Thesis: You would normally expect gold to go up when inflation rises, but right now it is crashing because interest rates are climbing even faster. When rates go up, gold becomes less attractive to investors since it doesn't pay out any yield compared to safe government bonds. Both Europe's central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to keep hiking rates to fight inflation sparked by the Iran war. With the price already at a six-month low, this downward momentum is likely to keep pushing gold lower as borrowing costs rise.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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