Nvidia hits multi-year valuation lows while traders buy the dip — momentum rever
Created
Thesis
A massive two-month selloff has erased $1 trillion from Nvidia and pushed its valuation back to pre-AI boom levels, despite the company continuing to set revenue records. Today, as broader markets tumble on news of US-Iran strikes, Nvidia is bucking the trend and fighting into the green while the rest of the chip sector bleeds. Connecting the extreme valuation drop with the current market divergence, it is clear smart money is using the broader geopolitical panic to aggressively accumulate the stock at multi-year discounts.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long NVDA on D1 when SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) is down >1.5% on the day, but NVDA closes positive (green). Exit condition: 8% profit target or 5% stop loss. Suggested symbols: NVDA.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
NVDA · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (2) below -1.5 — near
- ROC (2) above 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Sector Selloff / NVDA Resilience Long (NVDA@1d, SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Sector Selloff / NVDA Resilience Long (NVDA@1d, SMH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5182,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Sector Selloff / NVDA Resilience Long (NVDA@1d, SMH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5182,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Nvidia hits multi-year valuation lows while traders buy the dip — momentum reversal setup on NVDA'. Thesis: A massive two-month selloff has erased $1 trillion from Nvidia and pushed its valuation back to pre-AI boom levels, despite the company continuing to set revenue records. Today, as broader markets tumble on news of US-Iran strikes, Nvidia is bucking the trend and fighting into the green while the rest of the chip sector bleeds. Connecting the extreme valuation drop with the current market divergence, it is clear smart money is using the broader geopolitical panic to aggressively accumulate the stock at multi-year discounts.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies