Public trading strategy
Stocks bounce on peace talks but Bitcoin gets left behind — short crypto proxies
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin is showing severe weakness by failing to bounce alongside the stock market after the US-Iran de-escalation news. This divergence suggests investors are aggressively pulling risk off the table, highlighted by a record $1.8 billion in weekly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. The situation is exacerbated by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announcing a potential $1.25 billion Bitcoin sale, which could flood the market with supply and trigger a further drop. With strategists warning of a 30% further decline from the $60,000 'critical battleground', highly correlated crypto-stocks like MSTR are primed for a sharp pullback.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following short strategy for MSTR on the D1 chart. Enter short when MSTR breaks below its 20-day low and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading below its 50-day moving average. Exit the trade if MSTR rallies 5% off the entry, or after a 21-day holding period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
COIN · 1d
3 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below Donchian (20) — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- SMA (50) above Price — met
- SMA (50) above Price — met
- MACD (12,26,9) above 0 — far
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
MSTR · 1d
3 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below Donchian (20) — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- SMA (50) above Price — met
- SMA (50) above Price — met
- MACD (12,26,9) above 0 — far
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/SMA/MACD/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (7 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.9% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA/MACD/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.8544666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.708933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.8544666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/SMA/MACD/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.8544666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.708933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.8544666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Stocks bounce on peace talks but Bitcoin gets left behind — short crypto proxies'. Thesis: Bitcoin is showing severe weakness by failing to bounce alongside the stock market after the US-Iran de-escalation news. This divergence suggests investors are aggressively pulling risk off the table, highlighted by a record $1.8 billion in weekly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. The situation is exacerbated by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announcing a potential $1.25 billion Bitcoin sale, which could flood the market with supply and trigger a further drop. With strategists warning of a 30% further decline from the $60,000 'critical battleground', highly correlated crypto-stocks like MSTR are primed for a sharp pullback.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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