Public trading strategy
Iran peace deal signed — relief bounce on war-damaged stocks like BMW
Created
Thesis
With the US-Iran interim peace deal signed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium that was crushing stocks like BMW should quickly unwind. BMW specifically cited the Middle East war as a reason for their recent profit warning. With the war ending, their supply chains normalize and the stock is primed for a bounce off 5-year lows as the bad news is now priced in.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy on BMWYY (BMW ADR) daily timeframe. Enter long when price closes above the 10-day simple moving average after being in a 52-week low territory (within 15% of 52-week low). Exit when price touches the 50-day simple moving average, or after a maximum 20-day hold. Use a 5% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
BMWYY1D
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB/RSI Signal Long (VWAGY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Signal Long (MBGYY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Signal Long (POAHY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (VWAGY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MBGYY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (POAHY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (VWAGY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (MBGYY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (POAHY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (VWAGY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (MBGYY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (POAHY@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vwagy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 50,
"trade_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mbgyy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 51,
"trade_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_poahy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 52,
"trade_symbol": "POAHY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_vwagy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mbgyy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_poahy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vwagy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mbgyy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_poahy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_vwagy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mbgyy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_poahy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vwagy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 50,
"trade_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mbgyy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 51,
"trade_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_poahy",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 52,
"trade_symbol": "POAHY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_vwagy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mbgyy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_poahy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "VWAGY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vwagy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MBGYY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mbgyy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "POAHY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_poahy",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_vwagy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (VWAGY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "VWAGY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mbgyy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MBGYY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MBGYY"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_poahy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (POAHY@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "POAHY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Iran peace deal signed — relief bounce on war-damaged stocks like BMW'. Thesis: With the US-Iran interim peace deal signed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium that was crushing stocks like BMW should quickly unwind. BMW specifically cited the Middle East war as a reason for their recent profit warning. With the war ending, their supply chains normalize and the stock is primed for a bounce off 5-year lows as the bad news is now priced in.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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