Public trading strategy
TSMC shatters earnings records but chip stocks are plunging — buy-the-dip on AI
Created
Thesis
The fundamental backbone of the AI boom remains incredibly strong, as proven by TSMC's record-breaking profits and ASML raising its full-year expectations. Despite these robust fundamentals, traders are dumping shares across the entire semiconductor and hardware space out of sheer exhaustion and panic. When an entire sector drops despite overwhelmingly positive financial updates, it usually signals a temporary emotional sell-off rather than a true shift in the underlying business. Once the panic subsides, these top-tier companies typically rebound quickly to reflect their actual earnings power.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion swing strategy on D1 timeframe for ASML, TSM, and AMD. Entry condition: enter long when the stock price closes below its 14-day simple moving average (SMA) AND the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops below 40, following a recent 20-day high within the last 10 trading days. Exit condition: close the position when the price closes above the 10-day SMA, or after a maximum hold period of 15 trading days. Risk: 3% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AMD · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
ASML · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 40 — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — near
- Price above Bollinger (20) — near
TSM · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
- Price above Bollinger (20) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (AMD@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (ASML@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (TSM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (ASML@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/BB Signal Long (TSM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (ASML@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (TSM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.9% (1 condition)
- Exit: Thesis time stop after 60 days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_amd",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_asml",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsm",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_amd",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_asml",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tsm",
"name": "RSI/BB Signal Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_amd",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_asml",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tsm",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_amd",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_asml",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tsm",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_amd",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_asml",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tsm",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_amd",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_asml",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tsm",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4716666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.943333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "advanced_analysis_time_stop",
"name": "Thesis time stop after 60 days",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4716666666666667,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
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"enabled": true,
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"method": {
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"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'TSMC shatters earnings records but chip stocks are plunging — buy-the-dip on AI hardware'. Thesis: The fundamental backbone of the AI boom remains incredibly strong, as proven by TSMC's record-breaking profits and ASML raising its full-year expectations. Despite these robust fundamentals, traders are dumping shares across the entire semiconductor and hardware space out of sheer exhaustion and panic. When an entire sector drops despite overwhelmingly positive financial updates, it usually signals a temporary emotional sell-off rather than a true shift in the underlying business. Once the panic subsides, these top-tier companies typically rebound quickly to reflect their actual earnings power.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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