Public trading strategy
Oil flooding the market while the economy slows — short energy stocks
Created
Thesis
Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia is flooding the market with its biggest wave of oil exports since the Iran war truce, massively ramping up global supply. At the exact same time, U.S. hiring has slowed sharply with only 57,000 jobs added, pointing to a cooling economy that will likely need less energy. When you combine surging oil supply with weakening economic demand, energy prices typically fall. This double-whammy of bearish supply and bearish demand data makes oil and gas stocks highly vulnerable to a pullback.
Strategy approach
Build a short or mean-reversion strategy for XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) on the D1 timeframe. Entry condition: Enter short when USOIL (WTI Crude) makes a 20-day low while XLE is still within 3% of its 20-day high. Exit condition: 5% profit target or a 3% hard stop loss above the entry.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
OIH · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
USO · 1d
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (20) at or above Price — far
- Donchian (20) at or below Price — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
XLE · 1d
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (20) at or above Price — far
- Donchian (20) at or below Price — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (XLE@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (USO@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6464
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2928
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.6464,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/RSI/ADX Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6464
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2928
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.6464,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil flooding the market while the economy slows — short energy stocks'. Thesis: Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia is flooding the market with its biggest wave of oil exports since the Iran war truce, massively ramping up global supply. At the exact same time, U.S. hiring has slowed sharply with only 57,000 jobs added, pointing to a cooling economy that will likely need less energy. When you combine surging oil supply with weakening economic demand, energy prices typically fall. This double-whammy of bearish supply and bearish demand data makes oil and gas stocks highly vulnerable to a pullback.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies