Public trading strategy
When a beloved consumer brand cuts its full-year outlook and management admits c
Created
Thesis
When a beloved consumer brand cuts its full-year outlook and management admits customer sentiment has turned negative, the stock rarely recovers quickly — funds systematically mark down targets over the following weeks. Lululemon's cut signals weakness in discretionary spending that the market is still digesting. Historically, guidance cuts like this produce a downward drift rather than a one-day flush, making a patient short with a defined risk level attractive.
Strategy approach
When a beloved consumer brand cuts its full-year outlook and management admits customer sentiment has turned negative, the stock rarely recovers quickly — funds systematically mark down targets over the following weeks. Lululemon's cut signals weakness in discretionary spending that the market is still digesting. Historically, guidance cuts like this produce a downward drift rather than a one-day flush, making a patient short with a defined risk level attractive. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
LULU1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
LULU · 1d
3 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- MACD (12,26,9) below MACD (12,26,9) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- Price crossed above EMA (21) — far
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
- Price above SMA (20) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Post-Guidance-Cut Breakdown Short (LULU@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Thesis Invalidation: Breakdown Reclaim with Momentum Turn Up (LULU@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop: 60 Trading Days (LULU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Prior Swing Low Support[2] (LULU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Close Above Resistance[1] Pre-Cut Reaction High (LULU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% Risk (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.4% (Trail Once Half Target Achieved) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold Flush Recovery Exit: Close Reclaims 20-Day SMA (LULU@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Post-Guidance-Cut Breakdown Short (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Thesis Invalidation: Breakdown Reclaim with Momentum Turn Up (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Time Stop: 60 Trading Days (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Prior Swing Low Support[2] (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Close Above Resistance[1] Pre-Cut Reaction High (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.693035714285714
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7% Risk",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.386071428571428
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4% (Trail Once Half Target Achieved)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Oversold Flush Recovery Exit: Close Reclaims 20-Day SMA (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 236,
"risk_percent": 2.693035714285714,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Post-Guidance-Cut Breakdown Short (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Thesis Invalidation: Breakdown Reclaim with Momentum Turn Up (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Time Stop: 60 Trading Days (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Prior Swing Low Support[2] (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Close Above Resistance[1] Pre-Cut Reaction High (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LULU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.693035714285714
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7% Risk",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.386071428571428
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4% (Trail Once Half Target Achieved)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LULU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Oversold Flush Recovery Exit: Close Reclaims 20-Day SMA (LULU@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 236,
"risk_percent": 2.693035714285714,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When a beloved consumer brand cuts its full-year outlook and management admits customer sentiment has turned negative, the stock rarely recovers quickly — funds systematically mark down targets over the following weeks. Lululemon's cut signals weakness in'. Thesis: When a beloved consumer brand cuts its full-year outlook and management admits customer sentiment has turned negative, the stock rarely recovers quickly — funds systematically mark down targets over the following weeks. Lululemon's cut signals weakness in discretionary spending that the market is still digesting. Historically, guidance cuts like this produce a downward drift rather than a one-day flush, making a patient short with a defined risk level attractive.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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