Weak jobs + Fed on hold = Bitcoin's window to $65K — build a crypto position
Thesis
June's jobs report was shockingly weak, with only 57,000 jobs added versus the 115,000 expected. This dramatically lowers the odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which takes pressure off risk assets like cryptocurrency. At the same time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments about inflation easing have already pushed Bitcoin back above $60K. Meanwhile, the chip and AI stocks that have been pulling money away from crypto all quarter are now struggling. With tech weakening and rate-hike fears off the table, capital looks ready to rotate back into Bitcoin, potentially running toward $70K.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy entering long BTC-USD on H4 when BTC holds above $60,000 and the D1 50-day moving average is sloping upward. Exit with a 6% trailing stop or if price closes below $57,000. Use a 14-day max hold period.