Public trading strategy
Weak jobs + Fed on hold = Bitcoin's window to $65K — build a crypto position
Created
Thesis
June's jobs report was shockingly weak, with only 57,000 jobs added versus the 115,000 expected. This dramatically lowers the odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which takes pressure off risk assets like cryptocurrency. At the same time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments about inflation easing have already pushed Bitcoin back above $60K. Meanwhile, the chip and AI stocks that have been pulling money away from crypto all quarter are now struggling. With tech weakening and rate-hike fears off the table, capital looks ready to rotate back into Bitcoin, potentially running toward $70K.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy entering long BTC-USD on H4 when BTC holds above $60,000 and the D1 50-day moving average is sloping upward. Exit with a 6% trailing stop or if price closes below $57,000. Use a 14-day max hold period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
4 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 60000 — met
- SMA (50) below Price — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Supertrend (10) above 1 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
IBIT · 4h
1 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 60000 — far
- SMA (50) below Price — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Supertrend (10) above 1 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
MSTR · 4h
3 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 60000 — far
- SMA (50) below Price — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Supertrend (10) above 1 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ADX/SUPERTREND/ATR Signal Long (BTC@4h) (7 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"multiplier": 3,
"name": "supertrend",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ADX/SUPERTREND/ATR Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5768000000000004
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153600000000001
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5768000000000004,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"multiplier": 3,
"name": "supertrend",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"multiplier": 3,
"name": "supertrend",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ADX/SUPERTREND/ATR Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5768000000000004
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153600000000001
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5768000000000004,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs + Fed on hold = Bitcoin's window to $65K — build a crypto position'. Thesis: June's jobs report was shockingly weak, with only 57,000 jobs added versus the 115,000 expected. This dramatically lowers the odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which takes pressure off risk assets like cryptocurrency. At the same time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments about inflation easing have already pushed Bitcoin back above $60K. Meanwhile, the chip and AI stocks that have been pulling money away from crypto all quarter are now struggling. With tech weakening and rate-hike fears off the table, capital looks ready to rotate back into Bitcoin, potentially running toward $70K.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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