Public trading strategy
TSMC earnings prove AI capex is real while Microsoft gets punished for spending
Created
Thesis
TSMC just reported strong earnings that confirm its central role in the AI capex cycle. Meanwhile, Microsoft's stock is suffering a historic June rout precisely because investors are nervous about heavy capital spending. But here's the disconnect: Microsoft's massive spending on AI infrastructure flows directly to TSMC as the manufacturer of the chips powering that infrastructure. When you combine TSMC's bullish earnings with Microsoft's capex concerns, it actually confirms that the AI buildout is accelerating — and TSMC is the beneficiary on the receiving end of all that spending.
Strategy approach
Build a long strategy on TSM that enters when the stock pulls back >8% over 2 weeks on a broader tech sell-off, despite positive earnings or guidance. Combine with confirmation that AI capex spending from hyperscalers is accelerating. Hold for 30 days with a 6% stop.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (TSM@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (ASML@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (NVDA@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (AVGO@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (MU@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (MU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (MU@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsm",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_asml",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_avgo",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "AVGO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mu",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (MU@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "MU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tsm",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_asml",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nvda",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_avgo",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mu",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MU@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5479333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.095866666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_tsm",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_asml",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_nvda",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_avgo",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_mu",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MU@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MU"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_tsm",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_asml",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_nvda",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_avgo",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_mu",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (MU@1d)",
"priority": 104,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MU"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 20,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 618,
"risk_percent": 2.5479333333333334,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsm",
"name": "Oversold ROC/RSI/ADX Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'TSMC earnings prove AI capex is real while Microsoft gets punished for spending — the buildout continues'. Thesis: TSMC just reported strong earnings that confirm its central role in the AI capex cycle. Meanwhile, Microsoft's stock is suffering a historic June rout precisely because investors are nervous about heavy capital spending. But here's the disconnect: Microsoft's massive spending on AI infrastructure flows directly to TSMC as the manufacturer of the chips powering that infrastructure. When you combine TSMC's bullish earnings with Microsoft's capex concerns, it actually confirms that the AI buildout is accelerating — and TSMC is the beneficiary on the receiving end of all that spending.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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