Tesla smashes delivery expectations just as the Fed gets forced into a corner —
Thesis
Tesla just reported 480,126 deliveries for Q2, crushing even the most bullish analyst estimates and signaling a strong recovery for the EV maker. This fundamental win is happening exactly when the macroeconomic wind shifted in their favor: a dismal June jobs report means the Fed is highly unlikely to raise interest rates. Because growth companies like Tesla are highly sensitive to borrowing costs, a pause in rate hikes gives consumers more purchasing power and makes expensive growth stocks attractive again. We are also seeing the broader Dow hit record highs as money rotates away from struggling tech chips, meaning the general stock market has a strong tailwind to push Tesla's breakout even further.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long TSLA on D1 when the stock closes up >5% on a 3-day rolling window following an earnings or delivery announcement. Require the 10-year Treasury yield to be falling (lower than its 10-day average) to confirm a supportive macro backdrop. Exit after a 10-day max hold or a 7% drop from the entry price.