Public trading strategy
Inflation hits 3-year high, rate hike fears rising — short the broad market on t
Created
Thesis
When inflation runs hot and the Fed is forced to consider raising interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive for companies, which tends to hurt stock market valuations. The ongoing Iran war is specifically driving up energy prices, which keeps upward pressure on overall inflation. Because the core data is also sticky, the market is now pricing in higher rates for longer, creating a tough environment for equities in the near term.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion short strategy on QQQ using the 60-minute timeframe. Enter a short position when the price crosses below the 20-period moving average and the RSI(14) is between 40 and 50, indicating bearish momentum is building but not yet oversold. Exit the position on an RSI(14) drop below 30 or if the price crosses back above the 20-period moving average. Include a 1.5% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (SPY@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 1.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 3.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.5%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 3.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.5%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 3.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Inflation hits 3-year high, rate hike fears rising — short the broad market on tech weakness'. Thesis: When inflation runs hot and the Fed is forced to consider raising interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive for companies, which tends to hurt stock market valuations. The ongoing Iran war is specifically driving up energy prices, which keeps upward pressure on overall inflation. Because the core data is also sticky, the market is now pricing in higher rates for longer, creating a tough environment for equities in the near term.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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