Public trading strategy
IBM's rare revenue warning sends shares plunging 25% — short the broken stock
Created
Thesis
A surprise revenue warning is one of the most damaging events for a stock, because it shatters investor trust and forces analysts to drastically cut their future price targets. With IBM dropping over 20%, institutional investors are likely repositioning their portfolios, which can keep the selling pressure going for days as they unwind large positions. The sheer size of this plunge suggests the bad news caught the market completely off guard, meaning the initial panic isn't likely to be a quick one-day event.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short IBM on D1 when the stock gaps down more than 15% on earnings volume. Exit the position after a 10-day hold or if the stock rebounds to fill 50% of the earnings gap, whichever comes first.
Markets and timeframes
IBMD1
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
IBM · 1d
5 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above EMA (21) — met
- RSI (14) above 45 — met
- RSI (14) below 65 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) above MACD (12,26,9) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Failed Breakdown Long After Earnings Plunge (IBM@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop: 10-Day Hold (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Sell: Gap Base Breakdown (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Upside (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (Invalidation: Selling Resumes) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (Scale Out Into Gap Recovery) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Failed Breakdown Long After Earnings Plunge (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: 10-Day Hold (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Sell: Gap Base Breakdown (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Upside (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.401
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4% (Invalidation: Selling Resumes)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.802
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8% (Scale Out Into Gap Recovery)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.401,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Failed Breakdown Long After Earnings Plunge (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop: 10-Day Hold (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Sell: Gap Base Breakdown (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Upside (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.401
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4% (Invalidation: Selling Resumes)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.802
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8% (Scale Out Into Gap Recovery)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.401,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'IBM's rare revenue warning sends shares plunging 25% — short the broken stock'. Thesis: A surprise revenue warning is one of the most damaging events for a stock, because it shatters investor trust and forces analysts to drastically cut their future price targets. With IBM dropping over 20%, institutional investors are likely repositioning their portfolios, which can keep the selling pressure going for days as they unwind large positions. The sheer size of this plunge suggests the bad news caught the market completely off guard, meaning the initial panic isn't likely to be a quick one-day event.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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