Public trading strategy
AI spending hangover hits Asian chipmakers — short the semis as the $2T rally cr
Created
Thesis
Chip stocks just had a historic quarter, adding $2 trillion in value as the AI boom expanded beyond Nvidia. But the mood has completely shifted: Samsung and SK Hynix both plunged over 7% overnight as a US tech sell-off spread to Asia, driven by fears that Meta selling computing power signals an oversupply in AI capacity. When a sector gets this crowded and heavily bought, any negative news can trigger a domino effect. The combination of overvaluation after a record quarter and sudden fundamental doubts about AI capacity creates a high probability of further near-term selling pressure.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based mean-reversion strategy that enters short SMH on D1 when the ETF closes down > 2% from the previous day's close AND the 14-day RSI drops below 65. Set a tight 4% stop loss above entry and a 10% profit target.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Rally Crack Contrarian Fade Long (SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "Rally Crack Contrarian Fade Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop_loss",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "Rally Crack Contrarian Fade Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop_loss",
"name": "Stop Loss at 4.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_take_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'AI spending hangover hits Asian chipmakers — short the semis as the $2T rally cracks'. Thesis: Chip stocks just had a historic quarter, adding $2 trillion in value as the AI boom expanded beyond Nvidia. But the mood has completely shifted: Samsung and SK Hynix both plunged over 7% overnight as a US tech sell-off spread to Asia, driven by fears that Meta selling computing power signals an oversupply in AI capacity. When a sector gets this crowded and heavily bought, any negative news can trigger a domino effect. The combination of overvaluation after a record quarter and sudden fundamental doubts about AI capacity creates a high probability of further near-term selling pressure.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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