Public trading strategy
APO Confirmed Breakdown Short (Momentum Confirmation) Strategy
Created
Thesis
When defaults in private lending hit a record, the firms that originate and hold those loans face mounting losses and harder fundraising — and with the Fed poised to raise rates into a fragile economy, borrower stress should get worse, not better. These alternative asset managers have been priced as steady fee machines, so the market hasn't fully marked down the credit risk sitting on their balance sheets. As losses surface, their stocks are likely to underperform. The trade: short the public private-credit complex before the pain shows up in quarterly results.
Strategy approach
When defaults in private lending hit a record, the firms that originate and hold those loans face mounting losses and harder fundraising — and with the Fed poised to raise rates into a fragile economy, borrower stress should get worse, not better. These alternative asset managers have been priced as steady fee machines, so the market hasn't fully marked down the credit risk sitting on their balance sheets. As losses surface, their stocks are likely to underperform. The trade: short the public private-credit complex before the pain shows up in quarterly results. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
APO · 1d
4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below SMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — met
ARES · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below SMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — met
BX · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — near
KKR · 1d
6 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (BX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (KKR@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (BX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (KKR@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (KKR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (APO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ARES@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (KKR@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (KKR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (APO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (ARES@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (KKR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.7% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_apo",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ares",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bx",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_kkr",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_apo",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_ares",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_bx",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_kkr",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_apo",
"name": "Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_ares",
"name": "Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_bx",
"name": "Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_kkr",
"name": "Crossover Long (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_apo",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (APO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ares",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_bx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_kkr",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_apo",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (APO@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ares",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_bx",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BX@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_kkr",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_apo",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (APO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ares",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_bx",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BX@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_kkr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.374
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.748
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.374,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_apo",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ares",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_bx",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (BX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:KKR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_kkr",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (KKR@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:KKR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:APO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_apo",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (APO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:APO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ARES",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_ares",
"name": "SMA/MACD/ADX Crossover Long (ARES@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ARES"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BX",
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"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When defaults in private lending hit a record, the firms that originate and hold those loans face mounting losses and harder fundraising — and with the Fed poised to raise rates into a fragile economy, borrower stress should get worse, not better. These a'. Thesis: When defaults in private lending hit a record, the firms that originate and hold those loans face mounting losses and harder fundraising — and with the Fed poised to raise rates into a fragile economy, borrower stress should get worse, not better. These alternative asset managers have been priced as steady fee machines, so the market hasn't fully marked down the credit risk sitting on their balance sheets. As losses surface, their stocks are likely to underperform. The trade: short the public private-credit complex before the pain shows up in quarterly results.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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