Middle East war ending — ride the relief rally in the broader stock market
Created
Thesis
The end of a major global conflict removes a huge wall of worry for the stock market. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, shipping and fuel costs for businesses will normalize, which is great for corporate profits. Futures for major indexes are already spiking, signaling a strong open. Buying a broad index fund captures the positive market momentum without the risk of guessing which individual company benefits the most.
Strategy approach
Construct a breakout strategy for SPY on the H1 timeframe. Enter a long position when the price breaks above the high of the previous 24-hour period. Use a 1.5% trailing stop and a 7-day maximum holding period to capture the geopolitical relief rally.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/EMA/OBV Signal Long (SPY@1h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 1.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/EMA/OBV Signal Long (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.8%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 1.8,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "obv"
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 24
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/EMA/OBV Signal Long (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.8%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 1.8,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Middle East war ending — ride the relief rally in the broader stock market'. Thesis: The end of a major global conflict removes a huge wall of worry for the stock market. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, shipping and fuel costs for businesses will normalize, which is great for corporate profits. Futures for major indexes are already spiking, signaling a strong open. Buying a broad index fund captures the positive market momentum without the risk of guessing which individual company benefits the most.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies