Public trading strategy
Middle East war ending — ride the relief rally in the broader stock market
Thesis
The end of a major global conflict removes a huge wall of worry for the stock market. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, shipping and fuel costs for businesses will normalize, which is great for corporate profits. Futures for major indexes are already spiking, signaling a strong open. Buying a broad index fund captures the positive market momentum without the risk of guessing which individual company benefits the most.
Strategy approach
Construct a breakout strategy for SPY on the H1 timeframe. Enter a long position when the price breaks above the high of the previous 24-hour period. Use a 1.5% trailing stop and a 7-day maximum holding period to capture the geopolitical relief rally.