Public trading strategy
Semiconductor stocks keep bleeding while crypto catches a bid — long Ethereum
Created
Thesis
There is a clear divergence forming in the markets: chip stocks are extending their slide and dragging the Nasdaq lower, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are catching massive relief rallies. A CoinDesk article specifically noted that a rebound in tech stocks had recently eased pressure on crypto, but the renewed weakness in semiconductors is likely pushing speculative capital right back into digital assets. The Cointelegraph report highlighting 'extreme fear' in crypto finally meeting renewed ETF buying suggests sentiment has bottomed. This rotation from sluggish tech into recovering crypto creates a perfect environment to get long Ethereum while shorting or avoiding semiconductor names.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long ETH-USD on D1 when SMH (Semiconductor ETF) drops >2% in a single day while ETH-USD closes up >3% on the same day. Exit if ETH-USD drops 8% from the entry price or after a 21-day holding period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
ETH · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- SMA (21) crossed above 0 — far
SOL · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) below -2 — far
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- SMA (21) crossed above 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While ETH Up >3% (ETH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While SOL Up >3% (SOL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Signal Exit: ETH Close Above 21-Day SMA (ETH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Signal Exit: SOL Close Above 21-Day SMA (SOL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop After 21 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While ETH Up >3% (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While SOL Up >3% (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Signal Exit: ETH Close Above 21-Day SMA (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_sol",
"name": "Signal Exit: SOL Close Above 21-Day SMA (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop After 21 Days",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "invalidation"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4652333333333334,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While ETH Up >3% (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "Divergence Fade Short: SMH Down >2% While SOL Up >3% (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Signal Exit: ETH Close Above 21-Day SMA (ETH@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_sol",
"name": "Signal Exit: SOL Close Above 21-Day SMA (SOL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop After 21 Days",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "invalidation"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4652333333333334,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Semiconductor stocks keep bleeding while crypto catches a bid — long Ethereum'. Thesis: There is a clear divergence forming in the markets: chip stocks are extending their slide and dragging the Nasdaq lower, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are catching massive relief rallies. A CoinDesk article specifically noted that a rebound in tech stocks had recently eased pressure on crypto, but the renewed weakness in semiconductors is likely pushing speculative capital right back into digital assets. The Cointelegraph report highlighting 'extreme fear' in crypto finally meeting renewed ETF buying suggests sentiment has bottomed. This rotation from sluggish tech into recovering crypto creates a perfect environment to get long Ethereum while shorting or avoiding semiconductor names.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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