Public trading strategy
Oil prices plunge as Hormuz reopens — load up on small caps that benefit from ch
Created
Thesis
Saudi Arabia slashing oil prices is a massive tailwind for small, domestic companies because lower fuel and shipping costs directly pad their bottom line. Small caps are already having their best first half of the year since 1991, showing underlying strength. Even with the recent Iran tension, the reopening of shipping routes means the supply of oil is flowing freely again, keeping energy costs down and giving these smaller companies an unexpected profit boost.
Strategy approach
Construct a momentum strategy for IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) on the D1 timeframe. Entry: Enter long when WTI crude oil (USO) drops 3% over a 3-day period AND IWM is trading above its 50-day simple moving average. Exit: Take profit when IWM gains 5% from entry, or exit if WTI crude oil rebounds by 5%. Use a 6% trailing stop to protect gains.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
IWM · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -3 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — near
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (3) above 5 — far
USO · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -3 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- ROC (3) above 5 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (IWM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (USO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 6.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (IWM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_iwm",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_iwm",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_iwm",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_iwm",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.6199333333333334,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_iwm",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/SMA/ATR Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_iwm",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_iwm",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 161.8% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IWM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_iwm",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (IWM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IWM"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.6199333333333334,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil prices plunge as Hormuz reopens — load up on small caps that benefit from cheaper energy'. Thesis: Saudi Arabia slashing oil prices is a massive tailwind for small, domestic companies because lower fuel and shipping costs directly pad their bottom line. Small caps are already having their best first half of the year since 1991, showing underlying strength. Even with the recent Iran tension, the reopening of shipping routes means the supply of oil is flowing freely again, keeping energy costs down and giving these smaller companies an unexpected profit boost.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies