Oil surge plus unscripted Fed shakeup ahead — accumulate gold as inflation and u
Thesis
Bloomberg reports that German bond yields just jumped above 3% as oil prices surge on the Iran strikes — a clear signal that inflation fears are returning. CNBC notes gold is wavering as investors weigh these inflation concerns against unpredictable Fed policy. The wildcard is MarketWatch's report that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh plans to stop telegraphing policy moves in advance, which a former Fed president warns will spark major volatility. When you combine rising inflation (from oil), unpredictable monetary policy (from a new Fed chair), and geopolitical conflict (US-Iran strikes), gold becomes the natural beneficiary. Gold thrives when inflation rises and confidence in central banks falls.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long GLD (Gold ETF) on D1 when crude oil futures (CL=F) make a 10-day high and GLD is within 3% of its 20-day high. Add a condition that VIX must be above 18 (elevated uncertainty). Exit the trade if GLD drops 4% from entry, or after a maximum hold of 30 trading days.