Public trading strategy
Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — crypto relief rally on a sliding dollar
Created
Thesis
Today's June jobs report showed only 57,000 new jobs added, far below expectations. This directly impacts the crypto market because weaker job growth pushes the Federal Reserve away from raising interest rates. When expectations for rate hikes drop, the US dollar weakens, as seen by the dollar sliding immediately after the report. Because Bitcoin and major altcoins are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar naturally lifts their value and attracts foreign buyers who saw the dollar surge earlier in the week. Connecting the weak jobs data to the sliding dollar and the existing crypto momentum from Fed Chair Warsh's comments creates a clear macro tailwind for crypto in the short term.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on the H4 timeframe when the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops by 0.5% or more on the day. Exit the trade if DXY recovers to its 10-day simple moving average, or after a maximum 10-day holding period. Target a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
ETH · 4h
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (BTC@4h) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (ETH@4h) (5 conditions)
- Entry: ADX Signal Long (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Entry: ADX Signal Long (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (ETH@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_btc",
"name": "ADX Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_eth",
"name": "ADX Signal Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_btc",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_eth",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5796666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1593333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5796666666666668,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "ADX/ROC/SMA Signal Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_btc",
"name": "ADX Signal Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_eth",
"name": "ADX Signal Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_btc",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_eth",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5796666666666668
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1593333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5796666666666668,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — crypto relief rally on a sliding dollar'. Thesis: Today's June jobs report showed only 57,000 new jobs added, far below expectations. This directly impacts the crypto market because weaker job growth pushes the Federal Reserve away from raising interest rates. When expectations for rate hikes drop, the US dollar weakens, as seen by the dollar sliding immediately after the report. Because Bitcoin and major altcoins are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar naturally lifts their value and attracts foreign buyers who saw the dollar surge earlier in the week. Connecting the weak jobs data to the sliding dollar and the existing crypto momentum from Fed Chair Warsh's comments creates a clear macro tailwind for crypto in the short term.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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