Public trading strategy
Utilities like those in the XLU fund have traded at a premium because investors
Created
Thesis
Utilities like those in the XLU fund have traded at a premium because investors assumed AI data centers would guarantee decades of extra electricity demand. Texas utilities now freezing or revising down data-center demand assumptions removes the core reason for that premium. At the same time, the cloud giants behind the boom are forecast to spend $1.3 trillion by 2027 with only one expected to produce positive free cash flow — a spending pace that is vulnerable to cuts. If AI capex gets trimmed, the speculative electricity-demand premium in utilities should unwind from both directions: less demand, and less credible spending behind the story.
Strategy approach
Utilities like those in the XLU fund have traded at a premium because investors assumed AI data centers would guarantee decades of extra electricity demand. Texas utilities now freezing or revising down data-center demand assumptions removes the core reason for that premium. At the same time, the cloud giants behind the boom are forecast to spend $1.3 trillion by 2027 with only one expected to produce positive free cash flow — a spending pace that is vulnerable to cuts. If AI capex gets trimmed, the speculative electricity-demand premium in utilities should unwind from both directions: less demand, and less credible spending behind the story. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
MSFT · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 0 — far
- SMA (20) crossed below SMA (50) — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- SMA (20) crossed above SMA (50) — far
SPY · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 0 — far
- SMA (20) crossed below SMA (50) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- SMA (20) crossed above SMA (50) — near
XLU · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 0 — far
- SMA (20) crossed below SMA (50) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- SMA (20) crossed above SMA (50) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ADX Crossover Long (XLU@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SMA Crosses Above Exit (XLU@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ADX Crossover Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SMA Crosses Above Exit (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.3925
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.785
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.3925,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ADX Crossover Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SMA Crosses Above Exit (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.3925
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.785
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.3925,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Utilities like those in the XLU fund have traded at a premium because investors assumed AI data centers would guarantee decades of extra electricity demand. Texas utilities now freezing or revising down data-center demand assumptions removes the core reas'. Thesis: Utilities like those in the XLU fund have traded at a premium because investors assumed AI data centers would guarantee decades of extra electricity demand. Texas utilities now freezing or revising down data-center demand assumptions removes the core reason for that premium. At the same time, the cloud giants behind the boom are forecast to spend $1.3 trillion by 2027 with only one expected to produce positive free cash flow — a spending pace that is vulnerable to cuts. If AI capex gets trimmed, the speculative electricity-demand premium in utilities should unwind from both directions: less demand, and less credible spending behind the story.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies