Inflation cools and Japan cuts crypto taxes — Bitcoin breaks out toward $65K
Thesis
The June CPI report showed the largest monthly drop in prices since 2020, causing traders to drastically reduce their bets that the Fed will hike interest rates. Lower interest rates are historically bullish for Bitcoin, and the market is responding by pushing prices toward $65,000. Japan's new law slashing crypto taxes from a maximum of 55% down to 20% provides a massive structural tailwind for global crypto adoption. With both macroeconomic pressure fading and regulatory headwinds turning into tailwinds, Bitcoin has a clear runway for a summer recovery.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe when price closes above its 20-day high while maintaining positive momentum, with a 14-day max hold and a 6% trailing stop. ADVANCED ANALYSIS RESEARCH EVIDENCE {"fundamentals_xbrl":{"coverage":{"reasons":{},"requested":[],"with_series":[]},"etf_profiles":[{"expense_ratio":null,"fetched_at":"2026-07-14T14:14:33.950862+00:00","look_through":{"gross_margin":{"constituent_count":0,"covered_weight":0.0,"value":null},"net_margin":{"constituent_count":0,"covered_weight":0.0,"value":null},"revenue_growth_yoy":{"constituent_count":0,"covered_weight":0.0,"value":null}},"sector_weights":[],"source":"yahoo","ticker":"IBIT","top_10_weight":-0.0,"top_holdings":[],"total_assets":43234205696.0,"valuation_note":"P/E is not available…