Public trading strategy
Oil spike unwinds into a supply glut — short energy, ride the Tesla tech rebound
Created
Thesis
A tanker attack in the Middle East initially spiked oil prices, but the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a glut of supply, with Asian refiners now unloading excess crude globally. This fundamental oversupply sets a bearish backdrop for energy stocks, capping any geopolitical upside. At the same time, Tesla just ripped higher on a major self-driving technology update, reigniting the tech-driven risk appetite seen in the broader market rebound. Connecting the glut-driven oil weakness with Tesla's specific catalyst creates a high-conviction setup to short stale energy exposure while going long the renewed tech momentum.
Strategy approach
Build a pair-trade strategy on D1 timeframe. Enter long TSLA and short XLE (Energy sector ETF) as a combined unit when: (1) TSLA closes up >5% on the day (momentum trigger from self-driving news), AND (2) WTI crude oil has dropped at least 3% over the prior 3 trading days (confirming the glut unwinding the geopolitical premium). Size positions to be dollar-neutral. Hold for up to 14 days. Exit the entire trade if TSLA drops 5% from entry or if WTI crude rebounds 4% (indicating the glut narrative is failing). Target a 5% spread convergence.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
TSLA · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
USO · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
XLE · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 5 — far
- EMA (5) crossed above EMA (13) — near
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ROC (1) above 4 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (TSLA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (TSLA@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/EMA Crossover Long (USO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (TSLA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsla",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tsla",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xle",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_uso",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tsla",
"name": "Crossover Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xle",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_uso",
"name": "Crossover Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tsla",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xle",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "ROC Threshold Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tsla",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xle",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tsla",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xle",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5917666666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.183533333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5917666666666666,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "TSLA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsla",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (TSLA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "TSLA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 13
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "ROC/EMA Crossover Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
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{
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"method": {
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"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil spike unwinds into a supply glut — short energy, ride the Tesla tech rebound'. Thesis: A tanker attack in the Middle East initially spiked oil prices, but the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a glut of supply, with Asian refiners now unloading excess crude globally. This fundamental oversupply sets a bearish backdrop for energy stocks, capping any geopolitical upside. At the same time, Tesla just ripped higher on a major self-driving technology update, reigniting the tech-driven risk appetite seen in the broader market rebound. Connecting the glut-driven oil weakness with Tesla's specific catalyst creates a high-conviction setup to short stale energy exposure while going long the renewed tech momentum.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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