Public trading strategy
Oil at $100 is crushing airlines but pumping energy stocks — short airlines, lon
Created
Thesis
Oil has surged past $100 because the US-Iran conflict has spread to critical shipping lanes, creating a structural squeeze on supply. American Airlines just proved how quickly this hits the other side — they actually beat earnings expectations but their stock dropped because higher fuel costs forced a cautious outlook. When the market is broadly selling off on tech spending fears, capital tends to rotate into areas that benefit from the underlying shock. An oil producer captures the full upside of rising crude prices, while shorting an airline index captures the pain of their rising costs — together you profit from the divergence.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based long-short strategy: go long XOM and short XAL on D1 when WTI crude oil (CL=F) is in a 20-day uptrend AND XAL drops more than 3% on the day. Close the pair when WTI breaks its 10-day low or after a 21-day max hold. Use a 6% trailing stop on the long leg.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
XAL · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
XLE · 1d
14 of 22 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price below SMA (20) — near
XOM · 1d
14 of 22 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — met
- ROC (1) below -3 — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- Price below SMA (20) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d) (6 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (DAL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (AAL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (UAL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (LUV@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO/XOM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.6% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LUV",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_4",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (DAL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DAL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_5",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (AAL@1d)",
"priority": 5,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AAL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_6",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (UAL@1d)",
"priority": 6,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UAL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_7",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Short (LUV@1d)",
"priority": 7,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LUV"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO/XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2761428571428572
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.5522857142857145
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 14.285714285714286,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.2761428571428572,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LUV",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX/ATR Signal Long (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XOM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "SMA/ROC/ADX Signal Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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{
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"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
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],
"position_sizing": {
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"method": {
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"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
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"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil at $100 is crushing airlines but pumping energy stocks — short airlines, long oil producers'. Thesis: Oil has surged past $100 because the US-Iran conflict has spread to critical shipping lanes, creating a structural squeeze on supply. American Airlines just proved how quickly this hits the other side — they actually beat earnings expectations but their stock dropped because higher fuel costs forced a cautious outlook. When the market is broadly selling off on tech spending fears, capital tends to rotate into areas that benefit from the underlying shock. An oil producer captures the full upside of rising crude prices, while shorting an airline index captures the pain of their rising costs — together you profit from the divergence.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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