Public trading strategy
Geopolitical risk ignored as oil falls on Iran talks — short oil ETFs
Created
Thesis
Normally, a massive military strike like the one Russia just launched would cause oil prices to spike as traders worry about energy disruptions. However, oil is dropping because the US and Iran are making diplomatic progress, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and ensuring plenty of supply. When bearish supply dynamics overpower major bullish geopolitical risks, it shows overwhelming weakness in the oil market. By shorting oil or major oil producers, traders can capitalize on this downward momentum until the global supply picture tightens again.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following strategy that enters short USOIL on D1 when price closes below the 10-day low during a period of normal or declining VIX. Exit if price closes back above the 10-day high. Set a 10-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
USO · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (10) — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price above Donchian (10) — met
USOIL · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
XOM · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (10) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price above Donchian (10) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (XOM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xom",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xom",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.613833333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.227666666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.613833333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xom",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/RSI Crossover Short (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "XOM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xom",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xom",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XOM@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "XOM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.613833333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.227666666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.613833333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Geopolitical risk ignored as oil falls on Iran talks — short oil ETFs'. Thesis: Normally, a massive military strike like the one Russia just launched would cause oil prices to spike as traders worry about energy disruptions. However, oil is dropping because the US and Iran are making diplomatic progress, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and ensuring plenty of supply. When bearish supply dynamics overpower major bullish geopolitical risks, it shows overwhelming weakness in the oil market. By shorting oil or major oil producers, traders can capitalize on this downward momentum until the global supply picture tightens again.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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