Tech rotation is on — Tesla crushes delivery estimates while Nasdaq bleeds
Thesis
Tesla just reported 480,126 deliveries, easily beating Wall Street estimates. Meanwhile, the overall market is showing a major split: the Dow hit a record high while the Nasdaq fell again as chipmakers and expensive tech stocks struggle. The weak jobs report further dims the threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes, which historically benefits consumer-facing and industrial companies. Tesla sits right at the intersection of this rotation. It has strong fundamental news (deliveries) and is poised to benefit from the market's shift away from overheated AI stocks back toward consumer and industrial names.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long TSLA on the D1 timeframe following a positive delivery announcement (price closes up >3% on high volume) while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) closes red for the day. Enter on the next open. Exit on a 10% trailing stop or if the stock makes a 15-day high without the broader market confirming.