Public trading strategy
Soft jobs report kills rate-hike fears — crypto whales are already front-running
Created
Thesis
The June jobs report was so weak (only 57,000 new jobs added vs. 115,000 expected) that investors no longer fear the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Lower-for-longer rates are historically bullish for risky, growth-oriented assets like crypto. Meanwhile, massive crypto 'whales' were already buying the dip to the tune of $16.7 billion over the last two weeks, setting a price floor. Now, mainstream bitcoin investment funds have finally joined the party, breaking a 10-day losing streak with a huge $222 million influx. Connecting the macro pivot with the underlying demand strength gives us a high-conviction setup for crypto to keep climbing.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on the H4 timeframe when daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows exceed $150 million (using ETF proxy volume on IBIT as a bullish confirmation) and BTC is trading above $60,000. Exit if BTC closes below $58,500 on the H4, or hold for a maximum of 10 days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
2 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 60000 — met
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — met
- VWAP above 1 — unknown
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price below 58500 — far
IBIT · 4h
0 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 60000 — far
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — near
- VWAP above 1 — unknown
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price below 58500 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/VWAP/OBV/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@4h) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/VWAP/OBV/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 58500
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5767333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.5767333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "vwap"
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/VWAP/OBV/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 58500
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5767333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.5767333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Soft jobs report kills rate-hike fears — crypto whales are already front-running the rebound'. Thesis: The June jobs report was so weak (only 57,000 new jobs added vs. 115,000 expected) that investors no longer fear the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Lower-for-longer rates are historically bullish for risky, growth-oriented assets like crypto. Meanwhile, massive crypto 'whales' were already buying the dip to the tune of $16.7 billion over the last two weeks, setting a price floor. Now, mainstream bitcoin investment funds have finally joined the party, breaking a 10-day losing streak with a huge $222 million influx. Connecting the macro pivot with the underlying demand strength gives us a high-conviction setup for crypto to keep climbing.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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