Public trading strategy
Worst 'Fed day' market drop since 1994 — ride the downward momentum on the S&P 5
Created
Thesis
Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies, which tends to hurt stock prices. With the new Fed chair's very first day resulting in a market plunge not seen since 1994, traders are clearly spooked. Because the Fed is now openly talking about rate hikes, the downward pressure on the broader stock market will likely continue as investors sell shares to move their cash into safer, high-yielding bonds.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based mean-reversion short strategy on SPY using the 1-hour timeframe. Entry condition: price breaks below the 50-period SMA AND the 14-period RSI crosses below 40. Exit condition: price closes above the 50-period SMA OR a 1.5% stop loss is triggered.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 1.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 3.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 3.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 1.5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/RSI Crossover Short (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "SPY",
"timeframe": "1h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 1.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 3.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "SPY"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 1.5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Worst 'Fed day' market drop since 1994 — ride the downward momentum on the S&P 500'. Thesis: Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies, which tends to hurt stock prices. With the new Fed chair's very first day resulting in a market plunge not seen since 1994, traders are clearly spooked. Because the Fed is now openly talking about rate hikes, the downward pressure on the broader stock market will likely continue as investors sell shares to move their cash into safer, high-yielding bonds.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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