Public trading strategy
Markets are pricing in more European rate hikes than the economists closest to t
Created
Thesis
Markets are pricing in more European rate hikes than the economists closest to the ECB expect — a quarter-point next week and then nothing through 2027. When reality is more dovish than the price, the currency typically falls as those bets unwind around and after the meeting. This gives a defined event window to fade euro strength, distinct from the US-driven dollar trades elsewhere.
Strategy approach
Markets are pricing in more European rate hikes than the economists closest to the ECB expect — a quarter-point next week and then nothing through 2027. When reality is more dovish than the price, the currency typically falls as those bets unwind around and after the meeting. This gives a defined event window to fade euro strength, distinct from the US-driven dollar trades elsewhere. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
FXE1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
FXE · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (FXE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (FXE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (FXE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (FXE@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Crossover Long (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (FXE@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Markets are pricing in more European rate hikes than the economists closest to the ECB expect — a quarter-point next week and then nothing through 2027. When reality is more dovish than the price, the currency typically falls as those bets unwind around a'. Thesis: Markets are pricing in more European rate hikes than the economists closest to the ECB expect — a quarter-point next week and then nothing through 2027. When reality is more dovish than the price, the currency typically falls as those bets unwind around and after the meeting. This gives a defined event window to fade euro strength, distinct from the US-driven dollar trades elsewhere.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies