Public trading strategy
AAPL Confirmed-Breakdown Short (Value/Downgrade Cycle) Strategy
Created
Thesis
Bernstein analysts argue Wall Street isn't properly accounting for how much rising component costs will eat into Apple's profit on each new iPhone, which could mean a big miss versus expectations. At the same time, US consumer sentiment just hit a four-month low, meaning the people Apple needs to pay record phone prices are feeling worse about spending. Margins shrinking while demand confidence fades is a recipe for earnings downgrades as the holiday cycle unfolds. The combination supports a bearish position on Apple into its next results, hedged against the broad market.
Strategy approach
Bernstein analysts argue Wall Street isn't properly accounting for how much rising component costs will eat into Apple's profit on each new iPhone, which could mean a big miss versus expectations. At the same time, US consumer sentiment just hit a four-month low, meaning the people Apple needs to pay record phone prices are feeling worse about spending. Margins shrinking while demand confidence fades is a recipe for earnings downgrades as the holiday cycle unfolds. The combination supports a bearish position on Apple into its next results, hedged against the broad market. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AAPL · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- Price crossed above SMA (50) — far
- RSI (14) below 60 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price crossed above SMA (50) — far
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
QQQ · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- Price crossed above SMA (50) — near
- RSI (14) below 60 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — near
- Price crossed above SMA (50) — near
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (AAPL@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (QQQ@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (AAPL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (QQQ@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (AAPL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (AAPL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_aapl",
"name": "RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_aapl",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_aapl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_aapl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.62
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.24
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.62,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_aapl",
"name": "RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "RSI/SMA/ADX Crossover Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_aapl",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_aapl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AAPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_aapl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (AAPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AAPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.62
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.24
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.62,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bernstein analysts argue Wall Street isn't properly accounting for how much rising component costs will eat into Apple's profit on each new iPhone, which could mean a big miss versus expectations. At the same time, US consumer sentiment just hit a four-mo'. Thesis: Bernstein analysts argue Wall Street isn't properly accounting for how much rising component costs will eat into Apple's profit on each new iPhone, which could mean a big miss versus expectations. At the same time, US consumer sentiment just hit a four-month low, meaning the people Apple needs to pay record phone prices are feeling worse about spending. Margins shrinking while demand confidence fades is a recipe for earnings downgrades as the holiday cycle unfolds. The combination supports a bearish position on Apple into its next results, hedged against the broad market.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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