Public trading strategy
Oil spikes as Iran attacks Israel — ride the energy surge with Chevron and oil f
Created
Thesis
When military conflicts flare up in the Middle East, oil prices usually jump because traders worry about supply disruptions. Chevron is a particularly strong way to play this, since they recently boosted their U.S. production by 24% and have been returning billions to shareholders, meaning they profit heavily when oil rises. By buying Chevron or a broad oil fund, you position yourself to benefit if this geopolitical tension keeps a premium on oil prices.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on the daily timeframe when the front-month crude oil futures price (CL1) closes up more than 3% on the day and the 10-day Average True Range (ATR) is in the top 20% of its 100-day range. Exit the trade after a 4% profit target is hit, or if the price closes below the 10-day simple moving average (SMA).
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CVX · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ATR (10) above SMA (10) — unknown
- Price below SMA (10) — met
USO · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ATR (10) above SMA (10) — unknown
- Price below SMA (10) — met
XLE · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (1) above 3 — far
- ATR (10) above SMA (10) — unknown
- Price below SMA (10) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (USO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (XLE@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (CVX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xle",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_cvx",
"name": "Geopolitical Oil Surge Long (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (XLE@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 2
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (CVX@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVX"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 5,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil spikes as Iran attacks Israel — ride the energy surge with Chevron and oil funds'. Thesis: When military conflicts flare up in the Middle East, oil prices usually jump because traders worry about supply disruptions. Chevron is a particularly strong way to play this, since they recently boosted their U.S. production by 24% and have been returning billions to shareholders, meaning they profit heavily when oil rises. By buying Chevron or a broad oil fund, you position yourself to benefit if this geopolitical tension keeps a premium on oil prices.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies