Public trading strategy
Fed's hawkish pivot and record ETF outflows crushing crypto — short Bitcoin prox
Created
Thesis
The core signal comes from Fed Chair Warsh suggesting rate hikes are on the table if policymakers 'shut the door' at the next meeting, which is pushing the U.S. dollar to multi-decade highs against currencies like the Japanese Yen. A stronger dollar directly pressures Bitcoin, which is already buckling — investors pulled a record $1.8 billion out of Bitcoin ETFs last week. With the price hovering near $60,000 and institutional demand dwindling, companies whose entire value is tied to Bitcoin are at severe risk. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the perfect proxy: it has lost 41% of its value in June and is on track for its eleventh losing month in twelve. Betting against MSTR offers a way to short Bitcoin weakness without touching crypto exchanges directly.
Strategy approach
Build a short strategy on MSTR using the daily timeframe. Enter a short position when DXY (US Dollar Index) makes a 10-day high AND MSTR is trending below its 20-day moving average. Exit if MSTR rises 8% from entry or after a 21-day hold.
Markets and timeframes
MSTRD1
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
MSTR · 1d
3 of 9 published entry conditions marked met.
- SMA (20) above Price — far
- Donchian (10) above Price — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- SMA (20) above Price — far
- Donchian (10) above Price — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- SMA (20) above Price — far
- Donchian (10) above Price — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- SMA (20) below Price — met
- SMA (20) below Price — met
- SMA (20) below Price — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (MSTR@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (UUP@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (COIN@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 8.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uup",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uup",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uup",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2534
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.6267,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "SMA/DONCHIAN/ADX Signal Short (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uup",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uup",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uup",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 8.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.2534
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.6267,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed's hawkish pivot and record ETF outflows crushing crypto — short Bitcoin proxies'. Thesis: The core signal comes from Fed Chair Warsh suggesting rate hikes are on the table if policymakers 'shut the door' at the next meeting, which is pushing the U.S. dollar to multi-decade highs against currencies like the Japanese Yen. A stronger dollar directly pressures Bitcoin, which is already buckling — investors pulled a record $1.8 billion out of Bitcoin ETFs last week. With the price hovering near $60,000 and institutional demand dwindling, companies whose entire value is tied to Bitcoin are at severe risk. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the perfect proxy: it has lost 41% of its value in June and is on track for its eleventh losing month in twelve. Betting against MSTR offers a way to short Bitcoin weakness without touching crypto exchanges directly.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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