Public trading strategy
Treasury market is exhausted and bets are skewed — buy bonds if jobs data disapp
Thesis
Bond traders are bracing for higher interest rates, but the market is extremely oversold right now. If the new jobs data shows weaker employment, it will instantly kill expectations for a rate hike. When rate hike expectations die, existing bonds become much more valuable. This creates a perfect setup for a sharp rebound in Treasury bond prices as traders are forced to reverse their bets.
Strategy approach
Build a long strategy for 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT). Use the Daily timeframe. Enter long if the RSI(14) drops below 30 and the last daily candle has a long lower wick. Use a wide 5% stop loss to account for volatility, and target a 10% take profit.
Markets and timeframes
TLT1D